- Dollis Hill
Population projections for Brent by age, gender and ward, from the Greater London Authority (GLA).
Note (1/7/22): These projections pre-date the recent release of 2021 Census data, which provides a higher population baseline for Brent. The projections data are retained here for reference but are due to be revised by the GLA, in light of the new census data.
About the data
The GLA publishes a range of population projections on GLA datastore. In addition, it provides individual London Boroughs with a ‘Borough Preferred Option’ (BPO) projection, which draws on the latest data about planned housing development, provided by the Council. The analysis below is based on the 2019-based BPO for Brent (Standard scenario 1), produced by the GLA in May 2021. This projection is informed by GLA research into pandemic impacts on the population. In general, London-wide projections have been revised downwards as a result of pandemic impacts on migration flows, births and deaths.
What the data tell us about Brent – summary points
- In the short term, the projections suggest the Brent population is likely to have fallen over the pandemic year: a fall of around 0.5% (-1,800 people) over the period mid-2020 to mid-2021. However, this fall is expected to be a short-term phenomenon – as the economy bounces back, the population is also expected to.
- After 2021, the Brent population is expected to continue growing, albeit it at a slower rate than previously predicted. The projections indicate the population is likely to grow by around 17% between 2020 and 2041. If realised, this would equate to around 56,900 additional residents by 2041.
- The population is ageing: between 2020-41, the number of residents aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 78% – an additional 33,000 older residents by 2041.
- Population growth is likely to be concentrated in the areas where significant housing development is planned. The wards of Tokyngton and Alperton are expected to see the fastest growth: considered together, they are projected to accommodate an additional 33,200 residents by 2041.
Notes: population figures are rounded to the nearest 100 and percentages rounded to nearest percentage point unless otherwise specified. © GLA 2019-based population projections.
Projections are underpinned by a wide range of assumptions and are subject to considerable uncertainty, especially in the context of the pandemic and the impacts it has had on the population. In effect, the figures are a scenario of what might happen, if certain assumptions are made about future trends in births, deaths and migration flows - post pandemic.
Related reports and tools
The projections data are provided below in excel along with further detail about the BPO projection methodology. For analysis of these and other population data, please see our research briefing: Population Change in Brent, also available on open data. To explore the data by ward and age see our interactive tool in power BI.