Population projections for Brent - GLA

Population projections for Brent by age, sex and ward, from the Greater London Authority (GLA). Provided below are: the raw datasets and a link to an interactive tool which allows users to explore the data in more detail. A summary of the projections is available in the Population Change in Brent briefing, also on open data.

About the data

The GLA publishes a range of projections on GLA datastore. In addition, it provides individual London Boroughs with a bespoke ‘Borough Preferred Option’ (BPO) projection, which draws on the latest data about planned housing development, provided by the Council. The datasets below relate to the 2023-based BPO projections for Brent produced by the GLA in August 2025. GLA datastore provides more information about the methodology behind the various projection models.

Scenarios

Projections are subject to considerable uncertainty. In effect, the figures provide different scenarios of what might happen if certain assumptions are made about future trends in births, deaths and migration flows. Three variant projections are provided which make different assumptions. These are:

Scenario 1 (low): Future migration trends are based on patterns of rates and flows from the last 5 years. Fertility assumptions are based on the lower confidence interval of the GLA’s projected Age Specific Fertility Rates for 2024-28 and are held at a fixed level from 2029 onward. Future mortality rates are assumed to change in line with the Low Life Expectancy assumptions from the ONS’s 2022-based National Projections for England.
Scenario 2 (central): Future migration trends are based on patterns of rates and flows from the last 10 years. Fertility assumptions are based on the central values from the GLA’s projected Age Specific Fertility Rates for 2024-28 and are held at a fixed level from 2029 onward. Future mortality rates are assumed to change in line with the Principal Life Expectancy assumptions from the ONS’s 2022-based National Projections for England.
Scenario 3 (high): Future migration trends are based on patterns of rates and flows from the last 15 years. Fertility assumptions are based on the upper confidence interval of the GLA’s projected Age Specific Fertility Rates for 2024-28 and are held at a fixed level from 2029 onward. Future mortality rates are assumed to change in line with the High Life Expectancy assumptions from the ONS’s 2022-based National Projections for England.

Use the interactive tool below to explore the impact of the different scenarios on projected growth.